Torrential rains cause heavy damage to cotton crop in Pakistan

Cotton Report By Aziz Shah published in  Business Recorder deted 5-9-2011

S.A.AZIZ SHAH

Cotton Analyst & Consultant

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Torrential rains cause heavy damage to cotton crop

         

The last week (ended on 3^rd.Sept-11) spell of heavy rains with gusty winds lashed almost all cotton areas in Sindh and Punjab provinces throughout the week. Field reports indicate that the severity of rains in Sindh was more than that of Punjab. As compared to last year, monsoon season has been delayed by about two –three weeks and it is running perhaps on its last leg. Last year, heavy rains both in Sindh and Punjab were followed by moderate to heavy floods which damaged cotton crop heavily. The cotton crop, ( 2010-11) initially estimated around 14.0 million bales was finally harvested at 11.6 million local weight bales – loss of cotton crop being equivalent in bales to 16.47%  and as compare to previous season (2009-10) loss of 7.84%. By middle of August month, cotton crop estimates were officially reported around 15.0 million bales and by private sector around 16.0+ million bales, in view of very favourable weather conditions. Prior to these recent heavy rains, damage to cotton crop was caused by first spell of rains in Sindh in August month and fairly the damaged was assessed equivalent to half a million bales. This time, the damage is in both the provinces of Sindh and Punjab. Till the time, the running monsoon season comes to an end anytime in September month, one cannot precisely estimate the size of damage to cotton crop. In Sindh, the provincial Government has declared all the five districts namely Badin, Mirpur Khas, Tando Muhammad Khan Tando Allahyar and Nawab Shah as calamity-hit areas which jointly produce up to 2.0 million bales. Sanghar district of Sindh is the top most cotton producing district in Pakistan, alone producing annually between 1.6-2.0 million bales.

  However, latest field reports term the cotton damage as sufficiently heavy which may be nationally equivalent to 15% of the estimated crop of 15.0 million bales till writing of this report. Thus, latest crop estimate may be considered around 12.75 million bales on cotton area of about 3.5 million hectares. The wide spread rains have extensively caused flower shedding where crop was at flowering stage. Rains water is still standing in fields especially in low lying areas where if water stagnated for a day or so, the cotton plants with fruits may die of suffocation. The early sown cotton areas where cotton crop has already reached maturity stage and is ready for harvesting, the damage may not be in quantity but the quality would be adversely affected. After, the end of monsoon season, fears are there for pest and diseases attacks on cotton crop which may also cause damage to quantity and quality both. However, reliable crop estimates may not be available before October month. One press report by Shezad Ali Khan, acting Chairman of PCGA mentioned total national crop damage equivalent of 650,000 bales which appears far from reality. The PCGA has assessed cotton damage of 5-7% only while prior to last week heavy rains had damaged cotton crop to around half a million bales. In another press report by Yasar Babbar, the damage to cotton crop in Sindh has been mentioned as 70 % which works out between 3.0 and 3.5% million bales. Just see the two extreme reports; one assessing the loss around 650,000 bales in Pakistan and another report around 3.25 million bales only in Sindh.  Apparently, the two reports exaggerated and may be representing the interests of spinners and growers respectively.  What was the hurry, at least for PCGA, in declaring the size of cotton damage when the conditions under which damage was caused to cotton crop are  still present. The reporters / writers should make damage assessment very cautiously and pragmatically taking stock of all relevant ground realities and relevant factors. For a realistic crop damage assessment, one has to wait for a period of 4-5 weeks.  Of course cotton damage may be more in lower Sindh which may go between 1.5 and 1.8 million bales.  

Cotton crop in USA has already been affected by adverse weather conditions specially sever drought in Southern states which have lowered the crop estimates by about 4.0 million bales to 16.6 million bales.  Floods in  China\s cotton areas have been reported which would also damage cotton crop. Monsoons in India are continuing in South and western states – the main cotton areas but Rajasthan area has not received sufficient rains which the growers consider it good for better cotton crop. Pakistan crop estimates will have to be revised from 10.3 million bales 480-lb bales to below 10.0 level which may finally be determined in October month. Pakistan’s mill-use may require minor adjustment in October, 2011.    

Mill-use in Pakistan is now estimated around 13.5 million local weight bales. In view of present cotton damage position, Pakistan may not have export surplus as was estimated prior to  cotton damage by rains. It appears that Pakistan will have to go  for cotton imports which may be between one to one and a half million bales in 2011-12 season. I remember the situation of US crop in 1936-37, when after heavy rains the weather became so promising and conducive that US crop size improved by some 3.5 millions to 19.4 million bales instead of  estimated damage of more than 2.0 million bales. Nature  can show any thing beyond our comprehension.  So let us wait for the time for getting realistic production figures. 

 Here is a table of cotton figures which may give a fair idea to the readers about cotton situation in new season.

           

  Tab: 1.

                         World cotton supply and off-take – 2011-12 ( 480-lb Mln Bls)

Country           Beg. Stock     Production   imports   Supply   Mill-use   exports   End. stock

World                 45.0                122.7           37.6           167.7        115.2       37.6        52.7

US                         2.9                  16.6             0.0             19.4            3.8       12.3          3.3

China                  11.6                  33.0           15.0             59.6          46.0         0.1        13.6

Pakistan               2.6                  10.3             1.1             14.0           10.3        0.5          3.2

India                     7.3                 27.0             0.5             34.8           20.5         5.0          9.3

Central Asia        2.0                   7.0             0.0               9.0             1.9         4.9          2.2

Australia             2.5                   4.5              0.0              9.0             0.0         4.3           2.8

Brazil                   7.3                   8.7             0.1              16.1           4.6          3.7          8.0

Indonesia            0.4                    0.0              2.0              2.4             1.9          0.0          0.5

Mexico                0.5                    1.1              1.1              2.7             1.8          0.3          0.6

Turkey               1.6                     2.9              3.4              7.9            5.9           0.2          1.9

Source; CCI Global fax  August-2011.               

   

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